Posted by
Laura L. Hollis, JD on Wednesday, November 08, 2006 7:03:12 AM
I saw this coming. I was not surprised. Anyone who has spent time on Townhall over the past two weeks had to have seen it, unless they were drinking their own Kool-Aid. When the pundits and commentators on the right have to fight
daily to rally the party faithful, the
party's over. And that's exactly what went wrong last night.
In fact, I've said privately to people over the past few months that Republicans were going to have their a**es handed to them in November, and that they would deserve it. I believed it then, and I believe it now.
Here's my take on things:
Everyone says that this election was about the war. I don't buy it. Oh, I do agree that a lot of people don't like our being in Iraq,
and that the Bush administration's attitude about it seems to be to put its fingers in its ears and yell, "nah nah nah, I can't hear you," even when confronted with legitimate questions about the war, its program for success, and a timetable for handing the country back to its people. (This was exactly what people warned against 3+ years ago, was it not?) But a number of things persuade me that that would not, in and of itself, have turned last night's election into the Rout of the Right that it was.
First, the American public in general is uncomfortable second-guessing the commander-in-chief and the military in general about military strategy. They may not like the idea of a conflict, but they're willing to ride it out, at least up to a point.
Secondly, as many commentators acknowledged last night, even a large number of Democrats and Democratic voters aren't willing to say that they want us "out of Iraq, now." Most expressed a desire for oversight, real answers to genuine concerns, an admission that things are
not going well, thank you very much, and a concrete plan - if not a specific timetable for departure.
Third - and this is the critical point in my view - those Americans who have despised the war in Iraq from the very beginning would have voted against it no matter what the President did or didn't say.
Fourth, yes, people
do remember Vietnam, and there are enough historians among us to recall that we lost there because we lost our
will. Additionally, no one (except perhaps John Kerry) wants the troops currently in Iraq to be made to feel like those who served in Vietnam did for
years - abandoned, maligned, unappreciated and discarded.
Nope - this election was about
defection. It was a system failure from within. Conservative Republicans (fiscally and socially), Libertarians (like myself) who often vote Republican, and Independents of all stripes who do the same fled the Republicans
in droves last night. And for good reason.
Again, a lot of the talking heads last night focused on Congressional Repubs' rubberstamping the President's "see-no-problem, hear-no-problem" approach to Iraq. But I do not think even that would have turned the party faithful against them, because privately (and this means
locally, among their voters), many Congressional Republicans were deeply critical of the war.
But the Republicans were voted into office because their constituents believed in certain things, and sent them there to take care of those things. What have the Republicans
done over the past few years?
- They did exactly nothing to resolve the looming catastrophe that is Social Security.
- They did exactly nothing to address the problem of the "death tax."
- They waffled and wobbled and caved on illegal immigration (another issue on which Bush has misstepped, and badly, with those who voted for him in 2000 and 2004).
- They stammered and stuttered and rallied to defend their own when one after another Republican was tainted by association with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff
- And they spent like drunken sailors - government expenditures exploding under Republican control of the House and Senate in a way that would have made New Deal Democrats proud! For this, we need Republican control???
And the Mark Foley scandal - I am sorry, folks - absolutely did them in. This was the straw that broke the camel's back.
The Democrats' trumped up indignation and horror was admittedly specious and hypocritical, it's true. (Had Foley been sending text messages to teenaged girls, the Dems' only concern would have been whether she could have had an abortion if they had sex and she got pregnant, and now-Speaker Pelosi can hardly profess to be appalled by Foley's conduct, given that the age of consent in D.C. in 16, and hailing as she does from the gay capital of the United States).
But it wasn't just Foley's conduct, which many Republicans, Libertarians, Independents and more conservative Democrats found disgusting and abusive. It was the fact that (whether Denny Hastert knew anything or not), we all know that plenty of Republicans knew about Foley's "orientation," his predilection for young teenaged boys, and his lascivious pursuit of them, and no one did anything.
The Democrats' reaction aside, the fact is, the Republicans profess to hold themselves to a higher standard. More to the point, their voters hold them to a higher standard.
Right-wing commentators' and columnists' advocacy pieces over the past few weeks have amounted to, "Hold your nose and vote red." (Thomas Sowell, as usual, said it best when he quipped, "Better a third-rate fireman than a first rate arsonist.")
Not a good enough reason. When confronted with endemic fiscal profligacy and irresponsibility, utter abandonment of the principles of limited government, widespread lack of concern over the country's porous borders and nose-thumbing and flagrant disregard for immigration laws, lobbyist improprieties, sexual immorality (and, frankly, predation), and good-ol'-boy-style coverups, a significant portion of Americans who have voted Republican for years either stayed home, or voted for someone else.
The Republicans came across as fat, lazy, unmotivated and corrupt. Their own voters abandoned them, and the Democrats - with absolutely NOTHING to offer as an alternative - were able to capitalize on this wide and deep sentiment.
When the dust settles, and people start counting the votes, I think this will become crystal clear.
But there is another message here - and this one is for the Democrats:
The Democrats were put into office not so much by people who voted for them, as for people who voted against their opponents (and their opponents' party). For this reason - and the reason that they ran with virtually no platform - Democrats would be fools to think that they've been sent to Congress with any sort of "mandate" - particularly anything that attempts top-down social engineering, increased taxation, tolerance for terrorists or runaway spending.
These, of course, are the things Democrats do best. And no doubt they are already planning their legislative agendas, heady with victory.
This would be a mistake.
On FoxNews last night, Sheppard Smith remarked in a somewhat baffled tone that, based on the referenda and other ballot initiatives, America seems to remain a deeply conservative country, despite the overwhelming support for Democratic candidates last night.
My take on the elections certainly explains this. It's precisely because the voters' views have not changed that the election came out the way it did. As many bloggers have said here, "I didn't leave the Republicans; they left me."
We not only have a divided Congress under Democratic control; we have a Congress with only the most tentative of support from the American public. It will be interesting to see what the current Congress tries to do with that.